Looks pretty bloody nice on EC mind you... I don't think that GFS maps timing is right on Actually I don't think much of that map at all.......for realisim.
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IMO GFS has struggled with the past week and upcoming week. I've been channelling Verm and really just playing a waiting game...for the system to come round the corner into LAPS and MLAPs view.
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I think that the 29th-1st system will dictate how this set of systems plays out, which is why the models are not settled yet. Too early to call you know when 2 sets of potentially really good systems line up you cant really know what's going to happen with the second one until the first ones are through and out of the way.
The only thing that worries me w.r.t ACCESS is that the synoptic system at this far out (+150 hours) looks completely loopy...nothing like the EC map above.
But as we've seen over the past few days, ACCESS usually agrees with EC inside 100 hours.
The system appears to be weaker on EC this afternoon, IMO. And nothing past the 4th.
hey mate...IMO I see something here...obviously the models are going to be a bit wack till we get past this next change...but (besides GFS) there is a really interesting shape to that High sitting there...to me there is potential for a system on the 4th and the 6th... EC sorta sets it up like a bubble could flow up after whats presently progged at 168 (which looks like a low in bass strait -tasman) as long as that high stalls near WA I can sorta see some potential
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every snowflake in an avalanche pleads not guilty..........
Yeah EC's definitely gone 'wack' after about 120hrs on the latest run eh.....looks to me like it's 'had a bad day' style run and hopefully it will clean it's act up tomorrow eh Donz?
yeah it sorta has gorne wack.......................but I do think something is twigging it and i'm not sure what.. I'm still not looking so much at the low as much as the placement of the trailing high..if that high doesn't ridge over and it ain't overly strong...hmmm...i feel we have a good chance of a double system at 144 hours and 192 hours from now.. anyways. BTW
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every snowflake in an avalanche pleads not guilty..........
In terms of fronts, GFS has been good at predicting temps at 10-14 days...but then typically goes into a "mid-life crisis" with warm temps and rain. I think they're picking the nodes as they pass the South African land mass and then get whacked by Indian the Ocean transit. The point being that this period now looks surprisingly like the extended chart from over a week ago.
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Thankyou I'm appearing nightly at Twin Towns RSL's beautiful Stardust Room for a limited season.
In terms of fronts, GFS has been good at predicting temps at 10-14 days...but then typically goes into a "mid-life crisis" with warm temps and rain. I think they're picking the nodes as they pass the South African land mass and then get whacked by Indian the Ocean transit. The point being that this period now looks surprisingly like the extended chart from over a week ago.
this one..?
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every snowflake in an avalanche pleads not guilty..........
