Shaded areas represent one and two standard deviations of the anomaly from the trend. Updates will be generated at approximately two-weekly intervals.

A nice feature that isn't obvious is that the bottom axis is positioned at the summer ice volume zero (-13,500 km³). So when the trace hits the bottom of the graph (in September), that's it. This planet no longer has a northern ice cap.

You have got to be kidding right?

Interesting but too short to mean much.
If you find one for 1879 to 2009, that might show a trend worth noting.

The graph is the length it is (yes, short) because that's all the data there is (from satellites). There are longer plots assembled from various surface data, but they are necessarily less reliable (and generally only show sea ice area, not volume). E.g.:

To paraphrase Jeremiah, one are so blind as those with their eyes tightly shut.

You have got to be kidding right?

There is no chance of there being 0 ice in September none at all. Currently the ice is above that of the 2007 low and the forecast for Artic temps is lower than normal.

I don't know what it is about that graph, I'm not a statistician. But I do know what you are claiming as possible or even likely has not a snowflakes chance in hell of happening.

The graph is the length it is (yes, short) because that's all the data there is (from satellites). There are longer plots assembled from various surface data, but they are necessarily less reliable (and generally only show sea ice area, not volume). E.g.:




To paraphrase Jeremiah, none are so blind as those with their eyes tightly shut.

Sea ice extent in million square kilometers. Blue shading indicates the pre-satellite era; data then is less reliable. In particular, the near-constant level extent in Autumn up to 1940 reflects lack of data rather than a real lack of variation.

In your opinion.

I read this to suggest that the data sources vary over the period of the graph which in turn suggest that the apparent trends may not be true (in the blue shaded area of the second graph).

The northern sea ice was at about its 1980-2000 average in April this year and then dived quite quickly.

One explanation for this may be that there was a lot of young ice that breaks up easily, another may be the effect of the Icelandic volcano dropping ash across the ice sheet and increasing melt rates due to the darker ash absorbing more energy and heading the surface of the ice resulting in faster melt rates than normal.

Because of the very low thickness of much of the Arctic sea ice, it wasn’t too surprising that at the end of the winter, sea-ice extent decreased rapidly. This rapid loss lead up to the lowest June sea-ice extent since the beginning of reliable observations. After this rapid loss of the very thin ice that had formed late in winter, the retreat slowed down substantially but the ice extent remained well below the long-term mean. Currently, the ice covers an area that is slightly larger than the extent in late July of the record year 2007. However, this does not really allow for any reliable projections regarding the future evolution of Arctic sea ice in the weeks to come.

The reason for this is mostly that sea ice in the Arctic has become very thin. Hence, in contrast to the much thicker ice of past decades, the ice now reacts very quickly and very sensitively to the weather patterns that are predominant during a certain summer. This currently limits the predictability of sea-ice extent significantly. For example, in 2007 a relatively stable high-pressure system formed above the Beaufort sea, towards the north of North America, leading to rapid melting of sea ice there. If again such stable high pressure system forms in the Arctic throughout the coming weeks, we might well experience a sea-ice minimum that is below the record minimum as observed in 2007. However, if the summer should turn out to be colder than during the previous years, a sea-ice minimum similar to that observed in 2009 would not be too surprising. Hence, at the moment all that remains is to wait – and to check again and again the latest data of Arctic sea-ice extent.